Hermes-Skills/dividend-investing/SKILL.md

---
name: dividend-investing
description: "Dividend stock research, analysis, and ex-dividend alerting across A/HK/US markets. Covers: dividend history analysis (yield, growth, payout ratio), pre-ex-dividend day alerts via cron job, yield-vs-financing-cost arbitrage calculations, and record date tracking. Not for short-term trading entries — this is the dividend-side analysis mindset."
version: 1.0.0
author: Hermes Agent
license: MIT
platforms: [linux, macos]
metadata:
  hermes:
    tags: [trading, dividends, stocks, a-shares, hk-stocks, us-stocks, cron]
    related_skills: [tonghuashun, longbridge-python-sdk, stock-analysis]
scripts:
  - dividend_alert.py: "python3 ~/.hermes/scripts/dividend_alert.py — daily cron job; runs via cronjob no_agent=true (script output delivered verbatim)"
requires:
  - python3 + akshare (pip install akshare)
  - python3 + requests (stdlib)
  - For US stocks: internet access to api.nasdaq.com (no API key needed)
  - Cron job management (cronjob tool)
---

# 股息投资 Skill — Dividend Investing

Dividend-focused stock analysis and pre-ex-dividend alerting. **Mindset is fundamentally different from trading:** focus on yield stability, growth trajectory, payout ratio, cash coverage, and tax implications — not technical entry points.

## Data Sources

| Market | Data Source | API Key? | Speed |
|--------|-------------|----------|-------|
| 🇨🇳 A股 | `akshare.news_trade_notify_dividend_baidu(date)` | Free | ~3s |
| 🇭🇰 港股 | Same Baidu function (HK stocks included) | Free | ~3s |
| 🇺🇸 美股 | `https://api.nasdaq.com/api/calendar/dividends?date=YYYY-MM-DD` | Free | ~2s |

## Cross-Market Alerting Cron Job

The script `~/.hermes/scripts/dividend_alert.py` runs daily and outputs a formatted dividend alert. Key design decisions:

### Core Logic

```python
# 1. Find next trading day (skip weekends)
def next_trading_day(d):
    while d.weekday() >= 5:
        d += timedelta(days=1)
    return d

# 2. A/HK: AKShare Baidu dividend calendar
df = ak.news_trade_notify_dividend_baidu(date=target_date_str)
# Returns: 股票代码, 除权日, 分红, 送股, 转增, 交易所, 股票简称, 报告期

# 3. US: Nasdaq API
url = f'https://api.nasdaq.com/api/calendar/dividends?date={date_str}'
# Returns: symbol, dividend_Rate (per-share), indicated_Annual_Dividend, record_Date, dividend_Ex_Date
```

### Format Parsing

A-share dividend from Baidu is in **元/10股** format (e.g., "38.00元" = 3.80元/股).
HK dividend from Baidu is in **港元/10股** format (e.g., "0.62港元").
US dividend from Nasdaq is in **美元/股** format (e.g., 0.56).

### Cron Setup

```bash
# Create the job (EDT server time, 20:30 = Beijing 08:30 next day)
# Use no_agent=true for reliable script-only delivery
cronjob action=create \
  name='股息登记日前一天提醒' \
  schedule='30 20 * * 1-5' \
  script='dividend_alert.py' \
  no_agent=true
```

The `no_agent=true` mode delivers the script's stdout verbatim — no LLM token waste, no risk of the agent reformatting or truncating the message.

### Proxy Pitfall

AKShare AND the Nasdaq API BOTH break when system proxy env vars are set:
```python
import os
for k in ['http_proxy','https_proxy','HTTP_PROXY','HTTPS_PROXY']:
    os.environ.pop(k, None)
# Now import akshare and requests — they'll connect directly
```

Always put this at the top of your dividend scripts. The proxy env vars are typically set by Hermes gateway or system-level VPN wrappers, and they prevent direct HTTPS connections to Chinese financial data API endpoints (ProxyError).

## Dividend Investor Mindset (vs Trader)

When the user says they want dividends (not trading), shift analysis completely:

| Dimension | Trader | Dividend Investor |
|-----------|--------|-------------------|
| **Focus** | Entry/exit price, momentum, MACD | Yield %, payout ratio, dividend growth CAGR |
| **Key metric** | Buy point, stop loss, R:R | 股息率 vs 资金成本(如银行分期3%) |
| **Timescale** | Days to weeks | Quarters to years |
| **Data** | K-line, volume, ADR, MACD | Dividend history, cash flow, FCF, payout ratio |
| **When to buy** | Technical breakout / support | Before ex-div date (登记日前一天 = last buy day) |
| **Tax** | Short-term capital gains | Holding period tax rules (A股: 1月内20%, 1年以上免税) |

### Analysis Template

```
股息率 = 全年每股分红 / 当前股价
净息差 = 股息率 - 融资成本

分红增长率(5年CAGR) = (当年分红 / 5年前分红)^(1/5) - 1
分红覆盖率 = 经营现金流 / 分红总额
```

## Dividend Capture Analysis (Buy Before Ex-div, Sell After)

When the user asks about "收息后卖" (dividend capture), the math is NOT free money:

### The Core Equation

```
Net P&L = Dividend_Net - (Buy_Price - Sell_Price) × Shares
        = Dividend × (1 - Tax_Rate) × Shares - Price_Drop × Shares
```

### Why Dividend Capture Fails for Retail

| Scenario | Tax | Price Action | Net Result |
|----------|-----|-------------|------------|
| Sell at exact ex-div price | 20% (<1mo) | -div amount | **LOSE** (tax eaten) |
| Sell at exact ex-div price | 10% (1mo-1yr) | -div amount | **LOSE** (tax eaten) |
| Sell at exact ex-div price | 0% (>1yr) | -div amount | **BREAKEVEN** |
| Stock recovers +2% (填权) | 20% | -div +2% | **SLIGHT GAIN** |
| Stock fully fills gap | Any | -div +div | **GAIN = Dividend net** |

**Rule of thumb:** The stock MUST recover (填权) by at least the tax rate × dividend/price to break even. For A-shares with 20% tax, that's ~0.4% on a 2元 dividend on a 28元 stock.

### 填权 (Gap Fill) Timeline Analysis

Historical data for 华特达因 (000915):

```
2025年: 除权日6/11收29.49 → 第10天31.15(+5.6%) → 第15天33.22(+12.6%) ✅ 填权
2024年: 除权日5/16收33.48 → 第2天33.95(+1.4%) → 60天跌到26.89(-19.7%) ❌ 未填权（大盘差）
```

**填权 probability depends primarily on:**
1. **Stock's position in its range** — near 52-week low = higher fill probability (safety margin)
2. **Broader market direction** — bull market = fast fill, bear market = may never fill
3. **Stock quality** — strong fundamentals (growing dividends, cash-rich) = faster fill

### Dividend Capture Decision Matrix

```
Q: "Can I buy today for the dividend and sell right after?"
→ Show the math above. The answer is almost always NO unless the user can wait for 填权.

Q: "How long does it usually take to fill the gap?"
→ Check historical 填权 data. For quality dividend stocks at low prices, typically 2-4 weeks.
```

## Push Notification Formatting

For dividend alerts delivered to QQ/Telegram, use this card-style layout:

```
📢 明日除权·红利提醒
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅 今日 {date} 推送
⏰ 明天 {next_date} ({weekday}) 除权除息
💡 明天是登记日，今天买入仍享分红

────────────────────
🇨🇳 A股 明日除权 TOP

  ⭐{code} {name}
    💰每10股派{d:.2f}元

  💎{code} {name}
    💰每10股派{d:.2f}元

────────────────────
🇭🇰 港股 明日除权 TOP
  {code} {name}
    💰每10股派{d:.2f}港元

────────────────────
🇺🇸 美股 明日除权 TOP
  {code}
    💰${d:.2f}/股 | 年化${ann:.2f} | 年付{n}次
    📅登记日{rec_date}

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📌 操作提示
• 今天买入 → 明天登记 → 拿分红
• A股持仓1年以上免税，1月内20%税
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🤖 Hermes 每日红利雷达
```

Visual hierarchy rules:
- ⭐ for very high dividend (≥10元/10股)
- 💎 for good dividend (5-10元/10股)
- No prefix for lower dividends
- `━` for header/footer separators, `─` for section dividers
- 2-space indent per card, newline between cards
- Empty market sections are simply omitted (no "0 results" noise)

## Dividend Calendar Key Dates

**A股**:
- 股权登记日 (Record date) = T day — buy on this day, still get dividend
- 除权除息日 (Ex-div date) = T+1 trading day
- **登记日前一天通知** → 用户登记日当天买入仍可拿分红

**港股**:
- Generally same system as A-shares

**美股**:
- 除权日 (Ex-div date) = cut-off. Buy on or after ex-div → no dividend
- 登记日 (Record date) = often same day as ex-div
- Notification should say "明天除权，今天是最后买入日"

## Current Price Fetching in dividend_alert.py

The `dividend_alert.py` script enriches each alert card with real-time prices via **LongPort SDK**. Unlike the old approach (AKShare for A, Sina for HK, LongPort for US), the current unified approach uses LongPort for ALL three markets in a single batch:

| Market | Symbol Mapping | LongPort Format | 
|--------|---------------|-----------------|
| 🇨🇳 A股 | 603733 → 603733.SH, 000858 → 000858.SZ | `.SH`, `.SZ`, `.BJ` |
| 🇭🇰 港股 | 01088 → 01088.HK, 5 → 00005.HK | `.HK` (5-digit padded) |
| 🇺🇸 美股 | AAPL → AAPL.US | `.US` suffix |

**Batch all symbols in one LongPort call:**
```python
# One ctx.quote() call for all three markets
all_syms = a_syms + hk_syms + us_syms
for i in range(0, len(all_syms), 15):
    for q in ctx.quote(all_syms[i:i+15]):
        prices[q.symbol] = float(q.last_done)
```

**⚠️ LongPort connection can be intermittent** — the SDK prints a permission table on first init and may timeout on high-load days. If LongPort fails, prices show as N/A but dividend data still outputs. The script retries on each run (cron runs daily), so a single failure self-recovers.

**Dividend yield formula:** Yield = (dividend_per_10shares / 10) / current_price * 100. The Baidu API returns dividend in 元/10股 format, so divide by 10 before calculating yield.

## Script Reference

See `scripts/dividend_alert.py` for the production alerting script.
See `references/dividend-yield-arbitrage.md` for yield vs financing cost analysis.
See `references/fill-gap-timing.md` for historical 填权 timing data and dividend capture analysis.

## Pitfalls

1. **Proxy environment variables** — always `unset` proxy vars before calling AKShare or Nasdaq API
2. **Baidu dividend data is per-10-shares** for A/HK. Don't multiply by 10 again when displaying.
3. **Nasdaq API rate limits** — fine for 1 query/day in a cron job, but don't query multiple times rapidly
4. **Weekend/holiday handling** — `next_trading_day()` only skips Sat/Sun. For CN/HK holidays, you'd need a full trading calendar.
5. **No backward-looking price fetching for yield** — current market price is available from `stock_zh_a_hist()` (1-2s per stock), but fetching for all alert stocks is slow (~15s for 8-10 stocks). Tradeoff: speed vs completeness.
6. **Timezone confusion** — Server is usually EDT (UTC-4). Beijing is UTC+8. Cron schedule must account for this: 20:30 EDT = 08:30 BJT next day.
7. **`stock_zh_a_spot_em()` downloads the full A-share market (~5000 stocks)** — Takes ~3-5s for a single call. This is **fine** for one-shot batch price lookups (as done in `dividend_alert.py`) but avoid calling it repeatedly in loops. For single-stock lookups, prefer `stock_zh_a_hist(code, period='daily', start_date=today, end_date=today, adjust='qfq')` instead (1-2s each).
9. **AKShare Baidu dividend API is intermittent** — `ak.news_trade_notify_dividend_baidu()` may return 0 results on some runs despite having data on others. This is a server-side issue, not rate limiting. **Mitigation**: Added `time.sleep(0.5)` before the call to avoid cache issues. The cron job reruns daily, so a single failure self-recovers.
10. **Yield formula: divide-by-10 trap** — The Baidu API returns dividend in **元/10股** format. When calculating dividend yield in percent, use `(dividend_per_10shares / 10) / current_price * 100`. A common bug is forgetting to divide by 10 (the "per 10 shares" unit). Verified correct formula: `d/10/p*100` where `d` is the Baidu dividend value and `p` is the stock price.
11. **Variable name collisions in patch replacements** — When patching Python code that uses short variable names (`p`, `d`, `c`, `n`), find-and-replace patterns can accidentally match unrelated code. Always use 3+ lines of surrounding context for unique matching.