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69 lines
2.0 KiB
Markdown
69 lines
2.0 KiB
Markdown
# Trend Analysis for Position Decisions
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Use EMA12/EMA26 slope on 4H candles to determine if position direction is correct.
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## Algorithm
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```python
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def calc_ema(closes, period):
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if len(closes) < period:
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return closes[-1]
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multiplier = 2 / (period + 1)
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ema = closes[0]
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for price in closes[1:]:
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ema = (price - ema) * multiplier + ema
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return ema
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def analyze_trend(inst_id):
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# Get 4H candles
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candles = get_candles(inst_id, "4H", 30)
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closes = [c.close for c in candles]
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ema12 = calc_ema(closes[-12:], 12)
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ema26 = calc_ema(closes[-26:], 26)
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slope = (ema12 - ema26) / ema26 * 100
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if slope > 0.5: return 'strong_up'
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if slope < -0.5: return 'strong_down'
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if abs(slope) < 0.1: return 'ranging'
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return 'weak_trend'
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```
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## Position Decision Rules
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| 趋势 | 做多持仓 | 做空持仓 |
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|------|----------|----------|
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| strong_up | ✅ 持有 | ❌ 平仓 |
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| weak_up | ✅ 持有 | ⚠️ 观察 |
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| ranging | ⚠️ 观察 | ⚠️ 观察 |
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| weak_down | ⚠️ 观察 | ✅ 持有 |
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| strong_down | ❌ 平仓 | ✅ 持有 |
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## Decision Flow
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```
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信号/定期检查
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↓
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分析趋势 (EMA12 vs EMA26)
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↓
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├─ 趋势正确 + 保证金充足 → 加仓
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├─ 趋势正确 + 保证金不足 → 持有
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├─ 趋势错误 → 平仓
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└─ 无趋势 → 观察或平仓
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```
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## Real Example (2026-07-02)
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| 币种 | 方向 | EMA12 | EMA26 | 斜率 | 趋势 | 决定 |
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|------|------|-------|-------|------|------|------|
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| ETH | 🟩多 | 1646.37 | 1616.26 | +1.86% | strong_up | ✅ 持有 |
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| BTC | 🟥空 | 60567 | 60090 | +0.79% | strong_up | ❌ 平仓 |
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| SNDK | 🟩多 | 1961.92 | 2029.02 | -3.31% | strong_down | ❌ 平仓 |
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| SKHYNIX | 🟩多 | 1513.35 | 1605.48 | -5.74% | strong_down | ❌ 平仓 |
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| MU | 🟩多 | 1032.60 | 1075.03 | -3.95% | strong_down | ❌ 平仓 |
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| HYPE | 🟥空 | 64.90 | 64.29 | +0.96% | strong_up | ❌ 平仓 |
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| SOL | 🟥空 | 78.81 | 76.28 | +3.31% | strong_up | ❌ 平仓 |
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Result: Closed 6 incorrect positions, kept ETH (trend correct).
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