mike
657dc41c46
- OKX交易自动化 (okx-auto-position, okx-crypto, okx-exchange) - 交易信号处理 (signal-confirmation-templates, trading-signal-aggregator) - 量化因子挖掘 (quant-factor-mining) - 长桥集成 (longbridge-cli, longbridge-python-sdk) - 六合彩分析 (lottery-hk) - 股息投资 (dividend-investing, dividend-scanner) - 日内交易 (intraday-trading) - 同花顺 (tonghuashun)
99 lines
3.7 KiB
Markdown
99 lines
3.7 KiB
Markdown
# 填权 (Gap Fill) Timing Reference
|
||
|
||
## What is 填权?
|
||
|
||
After ex-dividend, the stock price drops by approximately the dividend amount. "填权" means the stock price recovers back to (or above) the pre-ex-dividend level over time.
|
||
|
||
**填权 ≠ immediate.** The market doesn't give away free money — the ex-div price drop is a mechanical adjustment. Whether and how fast the gap fills depends on ongoing supply/demand for the stock.
|
||
|
||
## Historical Fill Speeds for A-share Dividend Stocks
|
||
|
||
### 华特达因 (000915) — High-dividend healthcare stock
|
||
|
||
| Year | Ex-div | Dividend | Pre-close | Ex-close | Fill Time | Notes |
|
||
|------|--------|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|-------|
|
||
| 2025 | Jun 11 | 2.00元 | 32.39 | 29.49 | **~10 days** (31.15, +5.6%) | Fast fill; stock was in uptrend |
|
||
| 2024 | May 16 | 2.00元 | 35.30 | 33.48 | **Did not fill in 60 days** (30→27) | Bear market dragged it down |
|
||
|
||
**Key insight:** 2025 filled fast because the stock was in a healthy trend. 2024 didn't fill because the overall market was falling. Stock quality matters but macro conditions dominate.
|
||
|
||
### 同仁堂 (600085) — Blue-chip TCM
|
||
|
||
(Add data here when available from analysis.)
|
||
|
||
## Factors That Determine Fill Speed
|
||
|
||
### 1. Stock Price Position (Most Important)
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
Stock at 52-week low: High fill probability (already "cheap")
|
||
Stock at 52-week high: Low fill probability (due for pullback)
|
||
|
||
Example: 华特达因 2025 → ex-div at 32 → near YTD high → fast fill anyway (good stock)
|
||
华特达因 2024 → ex-div at 35 → at YTD high → no fill (bad timing + bad market)
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
### 2. Market Direction
|
||
|
||
- **Bull market / 结构性牛市**: Most quality stocks fill within 1-3 weeks
|
||
- **Bear market / 熊市**: Can take months or never — the dividend is "eaten" by the falling price
|
||
- **Sideways market**: Depends on stock-specific catalysts
|
||
|
||
### 3. Dividend Size Relative to Price
|
||
|
||
| Dividend/Price ratio | Impact |
|
||
|---------------------|--------|
|
||
| < 2% | Small gap, easy to fill (days) |
|
||
| 2-5% | Moderate, 1-3 weeks typical |
|
||
| > 5% | Large gap, may take months; better to wait for natural dip before buying |
|
||
|
||
### 4. Company Fundamentals
|
||
|
||
- **Growing dividends** (e.g., 华特达因 2021: 0.35 → 2025: 2.50/share) → faster fill (market rewards increasing payouts)
|
||
- **Stable/declining dividends** → slower fill
|
||
- **High payout ratio** (>80%) → risk of cut → may never fill
|
||
- **Cash-rich** (>30% market cap in cash) → faster fill (dividend is safe)
|
||
|
||
## Practical Rules for Dividend Capture
|
||
|
||
```
|
||
If you MUST try dividend capture (buy pre-ex-div, sell post):
|
||
|
||
1. Only attempt on stocks near their 52-week LOW
|
||
→ The ex-div gap is less damaging when already near support
|
||
|
||
2. Only attempt when market is in uptrend
|
||
→ Check: is the SH/SZ index above its 50-day MA?
|
||
|
||
3. Plan to hold MINIMUM 2-4 weeks post-ex-div
|
||
→ Selling the next day guarantees a loss (tax + gap)
|
||
|
||
4. Calculate your break-even price:
|
||
BreakEven = ExDivPrice + (Tax_Rate × Dividend)
|
||
|
||
Example: 28元 stock, 2元 dividend, 20% tax:
|
||
BreakEven = 26.00 + 0.40 = 26.40
|
||
→ Stock must rally 1.5% from ex-div just to break even
|
||
|
||
5. Consider buying AFTER ex-div instead:
|
||
- No dividend → no tax → no gap risk
|
||
- Lower entry price → higher yield on cost
|
||
- Same future dividends
|
||
→ Often the better move for pure yield investors
|
||
```
|
||
|
||
## Data Source
|
||
|
||
To calculate 填权 timing for any stock:
|
||
|
||
```python
|
||
import akshare as ak
|
||
|
||
# Use unadjusted prices (adjust='') to see the real ex-div gap
|
||
df = ak.stock_zh_a_hist(symbol='000915', period='daily',
|
||
start_date='20250601', end_date='20251001', adjust='')
|
||
|
||
# Find ex-div day by looking for the big drop on the expected date
|
||
# Then scan forward to see how many days to recover
|
||
```
|