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mike 657dc41c46 Initial commit: Trading skills collection

- OKX交易自动化 (okx-auto-position, okx-crypto, okx-exchange)
- 交易信号处理 (signal-confirmation-templates, trading-signal-aggregator)
- 量化因子挖掘 (quant-factor-mining)
- 长桥集成 (longbridge-cli, longbridge-python-sdk)
- 六合彩分析 (lottery-hk)
- 股息投资 (dividend-investing, dividend-scanner)
- 日内交易 (intraday-trading)
- 同花顺 (tonghuashun)

2026-07-05 02:39:41 -04:00

3.7 KiB

Raw Blame History

填权 (Gap Fill) Timing Reference

What is 填权?

After ex-dividend, the stock price drops by approximately the dividend amount. "填权" means the stock price recovers back to (or above) the pre-ex-dividend level over time.

填权 ≠ immediate. The market doesn't give away free money — the ex-div price drop is a mechanical adjustment. Whether and how fast the gap fills depends on ongoing supply/demand for the stock.

华特达因 (000915) — High-dividend healthcare stock

Year	Ex-div	Dividend	Pre-close	Ex-close	Fill Time	Notes
2025	Jun 11	2.00元	32.39	29.49	~10 days (31.15, +5.6%)	Fast fill; stock was in uptrend
2024	May 16	2.00元	35.30	33.48	Did not fill in 60 days (30→27)	Bear market dragged it down

Key insight: 2025 filled fast because the stock was in a healthy trend. 2024 didn't fill because the overall market was falling. Stock quality matters but macro conditions dominate.

同仁堂 (600085) — Blue-chip TCM

(Add data here when available from analysis.)

Factors That Determine Fill Speed

1. Stock Price Position (Most Important)

Stock at 52-week low:   High fill probability (already "cheap")
Stock at 52-week high:  Low fill probability (due for pullback)

Example: 华特达因 2025 → ex-div at 32 → near YTD high → fast fill anyway (good stock)
         华特达因 2024 → ex-div at 35 → at YTD high → no fill (bad timing + bad market)

2. Market Direction

Bull market / 结构性牛市: Most quality stocks fill within 1-3 weeks
Bear market / 熊市: Can take months or never — the dividend is "eaten" by the falling price
Sideways market: Depends on stock-specific catalysts

3. Dividend Size Relative to Price

Dividend/Price ratio	Impact
< 2%	Small gap, easy to fill (days)
2-5%	Moderate, 1-3 weeks typical
> 5%	Large gap, may take months; better to wait for natural dip before buying

4. Company Fundamentals

Growing dividends (e.g., 华特达因 2021: 0.35 → 2025: 2.50/share) → faster fill (market rewards increasing payouts)
Stable/declining dividends → slower fill
High payout ratio (>80%) → risk of cut → may never fill
Cash-rich (>30% market cap in cash) → faster fill (dividend is safe)

Practical Rules for Dividend Capture

If you MUST try dividend capture (buy pre-ex-div, sell post):

1. Only attempt on stocks near their 52-week LOW
   → The ex-div gap is less damaging when already near support

2. Only attempt when market is in uptrend
   → Check: is the SH/SZ index above its 50-day MA?

3. Plan to hold MINIMUM 2-4 weeks post-ex-div
   → Selling the next day guarantees a loss (tax + gap)

4. Calculate your break-even price:
   BreakEven = ExDivPrice + (Tax_Rate × Dividend)
   
   Example: 28元 stock, 2元 dividend, 20% tax:
   BreakEven = 26.00 + 0.40 = 26.40
   → Stock must rally 1.5% from ex-div just to break even

5. Consider buying AFTER ex-div instead:
   - No dividend → no tax → no gap risk
   - Lower entry price → higher yield on cost
   - Same future dividends
   → Often the better move for pure yield investors

Data Source

To calculate 填权 timing for any stock:

import akshare as ak

# Use unadjusted prices (adjust='') to see the real ex-div gap
df = ak.stock_zh_a_hist(symbol='000915', period='daily', 
                         start_date='20250601', end_date='20251001', adjust='')

# Find ex-div day by looking for the big drop on the expected date
# Then scan forward to see how many days to recover

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