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v2026-07-21: 实战教训汇总 (push 11 文件)

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新增 8 reference:
  - dividend-stability-score: A 股 5 维评分 (派息年数/CAGR/波动/最近/连续) → 0-100 分 + 5 星
  - dividend-yield-rate-sort: 按股息率% 倒序 (用户偏好 2026-07-13)
  - longport-http-module: longport_http.py 公共模块 (替代 SDK WSS)
  - leverage-pass-through-bug: process_signal.py 丢失 leverage 字段 (5x 实际 10x)
  - follow-trading-iron-laws: 跟单铁律 (用户原话 5+ 次 2026-07-21)
  - forced-skill-entry-okx-trade: okx_trade.sh 强制入口 (替代 ccxt 裸调)
  - mihomo-clash-node-supplier-dns: Clash 节点供应商 DNS 失败处理
  - mihomo-ssl-reconnect-pattern: mihomo 反复 SSL/Timeout 模式
  - v4.5.44-mu-add-to-75pct-cap: MU 加仓 75% 单币种 cap 标准流程

改 2 SKILL.md:
  - dividend-investing: 加 5 维评分 + 长桥 http 模块
  - longbridge-cli: 标注 '不要写 openapi.QuoteContext' + 迁移说明
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---
name: dividend-investing
description: "Dividend stock research, analysis, and ex-dividend alerting across A/HK/US markets. Covers: dividend history analysis (yield, growth, payout ratio), pre-ex-dividend day alerts via cron job, yield-vs-financing-cost arbitrage calculations, and record date tracking. Not for short-term trading entries — this is the dividend-side analysis mindset."
version: 1.0.0
description: "Dividend stock research, analysis, and ex-dividend alerting across A/HK/US markets. Covers: dividend history analysis (yield, growth, payout ratio), pre-ex-dividend day alerts via cron job, yield-vs-financing-cost arbitrage calculations, and record date tracking. Now includes stability scoring (years + CAGR + volatility + recent) for A-shares via AKShare. Not for short-term trading entries — this is the dividend-side analysis mindset."
version: 1.2.0
author: Hermes Agent
license: MIT
platforms: [linux, macos]
metadata:
hermes:
tags: [trading, dividends, stocks, a-shares, hk-stocks, us-stocks, cron]
tags: [trading, dividends, stocks, a-shares, hk-stocks, us-stocks, cron, dividend-stability]
related_skills: [tonghuashun, longbridge-python-sdk, stock-analysis]
scripts:
- dividend_alert.py: "python3 ~/.hermes/scripts/dividend_alert.py — daily cron job; runs via cronjob no_agent=true (script output delivered verbatim)"
- scripts/dividend_alert.py: "python3 ~/.hermes/scripts/dividend_alert.py — daily cron job; runs via cronjob no_agent=true (script output delivered verbatim)"
- scripts/stability_scorer.py: "score_dividend_stability(symbol, market) → dict (years/CAGR/volatility → 0-100). Used by dividend_alert to label each A-share with stability stars."
references:
- dividend-yield-rate-sort: "分红扫描按股息率% 倒序(用户偏好 2026-07-13)"
- fill-gap-timing: "填权时间线数据 + 抓取分析"
- dividend-yield-arbitrage: "股息率 vs 融资成本套息"
- cron-schedule-and-push-timing: "cron schedule / Beijing-time push timing (why 11:00 BJT)"
- dividend-stability-score: "5 维评分 (派息年数/CAGR/波动/最近/连续) 综合稳定性 0-100 + 5 星等级"
requires:
- python3 + akshare (pip install akshare)
- python3 + requests (stdlib)
- python3 + pandas (pip install pandas)
- For US stocks: internet access to api.nasdaq.com (no API key needed)
- For A-shares stability: AKShare (installed)
- Cron job management (cronjob tool)
---
# 股息投资 Skill — Dividend Investing
Dividend-focused stock analysis and pre-ex-dividend alerting. **Mindset is fundamentally different from trading:** focus on yield stability, growth trajectory, payout ratio, cash coverage, and tax implications — not technical entry points.
## Data Sources
| Market | Data Source | API Key? | Speed |
|--------|-------------|----------|-------|
| 🇨🇳 A股 | `akshare.news_trade_notify_dividend_baidu(date)` | Free | ~3s |
| 🇭🇰 港股 | Same Baidu function (HK stocks included) | Free | ~3s |
| 🇺🇸 美股 | `https://api.nasdaq.com/api/calendar/dividends?date=YYYY-MM-DD` | Free | ~2s |
## Cross-Market Alerting Cron Job
The script `~/.hermes/scripts/dividend_alert.py` runs daily and outputs a formatted dividend alert. Key design decisions:
### Core Logic
```python
# 1. Find next trading day (skip weekends)
def next_trading_day(d):
while d.weekday() >= 5:
d += timedelta(days=1)
return d
# 2. A/HK: AKShare Baidu dividend calendar
df = ak.news_trade_notify_dividend_baidu(date=target_date_str)
# Returns: 股票代码, 除权日, 分红, 送股, 转增, 交易所, 股票简称, 报告期
# 3. US: Nasdaq API
url = f'https://api.nasdaq.com/api/calendar/dividends?date={date_str}'
# Returns: symbol, dividend_Rate (per-share), indicated_Annual_Dividend, record_Date, dividend_Ex_Date
```
### Format Parsing
A-share dividend from Baidu is in **元/10股** format (e.g., "38.00元" = 3.80元/股).
HK dividend from Baidu is in **港元/10股** format (e.g., "0.62港元").
US dividend from Nasdaq is in **美元/股** format (e.g., 0.56).
### Cron Setup
```bash
# Create the job (EDT server time, 20:30 = Beijing 08:30 next day)
# Use no_agent=true for reliable script-only delivery
cronjob action=create \
name='股息登记日前一天提醒' \
schedule='30 20 * * 1-5' \
script='dividend_alert.py' \
no_agent=true
```
The `no_agent=true` mode delivers the script's stdout verbatim — no LLM token waste, no risk of the agent reformatting or truncating the message.
### Proxy Pitfall
AKShare AND the Nasdaq API BOTH break when system proxy env vars are set:
```python
import os
for k in ['http_proxy','https_proxy','HTTP_PROXY','HTTPS_PROXY']:
os.environ.pop(k, None)
# Now import akshare and requests — they'll connect directly
```
Always put this at the top of your dividend scripts. The proxy env vars are typically set by Hermes gateway or system-level VPN wrappers, and they prevent direct HTTPS connections to Chinese financial data API endpoints (ProxyError).
## Dividend Investor Mindset (vs Trader)
When the user says they want dividends (not trading), shift analysis completely:
| Dimension | Trader | Dividend Investor |
|-----------|--------|-------------------|
| **Focus** | Entry/exit price, momentum, MACD | Yield %, payout ratio, dividend growth CAGR |
| **Key metric** | Buy point, stop loss, R:R | 股息率 vs 资金成本(如银行分期3%) |
| **Timescale** | Days to weeks | Quarters to years |
| **Data** | K-line, volume, ADR, MACD | Dividend history, cash flow, FCF, payout ratio |
| **When to buy** | Technical breakout / support | Before ex-div date (登记日前一天 = last buy day) |
| **Tax** | Short-term capital gains | Holding period tax rules (A股: 1月内20%, 1年以上免税) |
### Analysis Template
```
股息率 = 全年每股分红 / 当前股价
净息差 = 股息率 - 融资成本
分红增长率(5年CAGR) = (当年分红 / 5年前分红)^(1/5) - 1
分红覆盖率 = 经营现金流 / 分红总额
```
## Dividend Capture Analysis (Buy Before Ex-div, Sell After)
When the user asks about "收息后卖" (dividend capture), the math is NOT free money:
### The Core Equation
```
Net P&L = Dividend_Net - (Buy_Price - Sell_Price) × Shares
= Dividend × (1 - Tax_Rate) × Shares - Price_Drop × Shares
```
### Why Dividend Capture Fails for Retail
| Scenario | Tax | Price Action | Net Result |
|----------|-----|-------------|------------|
| Sell at exact ex-div price | 20% (<1mo) | -div amount | **LOSE** (tax eaten) |
| Sell at exact ex-div price | 10% (1mo-1yr) | -div amount | **LOSE** (tax eaten) |
| Sell at exact ex-div price | 0% (>1yr) | -div amount | **BREAKEVEN** |
| Stock recovers +2% (填权) | 20% | -div +2% | **SLIGHT GAIN** |
| Stock fully fills gap | Any | -div +div | **GAIN = Dividend net** |
**Rule of thumb:** The stock MUST recover (填权) by at least the tax rate × dividend/price to break even. For A-shares with 20% tax, that's ~0.4% on a 2元 dividend on a 28元 stock.
### 填权 (Gap Fill) Timeline Analysis
Historical data for 华特达因 (000915):
```
2025年: 除权日6/11收29.49 → 第10天31.15(+5.6%) → 第15天33.22(+12.6%) ✅ 填权
2024年: 除权日5/16收33.48 → 第2天33.95(+1.4%) → 60天跌到26.89(-19.7%) ❌ 未填权（大盘差）
```
**填权 probability depends primarily on:**
1. **Stock's position in its range** — near 52-week low = higher fill probability (safety margin)
2. **Broader market direction** — bull market = fast fill, bear market = may never fill
3. **Stock quality** — strong fundamentals (growing dividends, cash-rich) = faster fill
### Dividend Capture Decision Matrix
```
Q: "Can I buy today for the dividend and sell right after?"
→ Show the math above. The answer is almost always NO unless the user can wait for 填权.
Q: "How long does it usually take to fill the gap?"
→ Check historical 填权 data. For quality dividend stocks at low prices, typically 2-4 weeks.
```
## Push Notification Formatting
For dividend alerts delivered to QQ/Telegram, use this card-style layout:
```
📢 明日除权·红利提醒
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📅 今日 {date} 推送
⏰ 明天 {next_date} ({weekday}) 除权除息
💡 明天是登记日，今天买入仍享分红
────────────────────
🇨🇳 A股 明日除权 TOP
⭐{code} {name}
💰每10股派{d:.2f}元
💎{code} {name}
💰每10股派{d:.2f}元
────────────────────
🇭🇰 港股 明日除权 TOP
{code} {name}
💰每10股派{d:.2f}港元
────────────────────
🇺🇸 美股 明日除权 TOP
{code}
💰${d:.2f}/股 | 年化${ann:.2f} | 年付{n}次
📅登记日{rec_date}
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📌 操作提示
• 今天买入 → 明天登记 → 拿分红
• A股持仓1年以上免税，1月内20%税
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🤖 Hermes 每日红利雷达
```
Visual hierarchy rules:
- ⭐ for very high dividend (≥10元/10股)
- 💎 for good dividend (5-10元/10股)
- No prefix for lower dividends
- `━` for header/footer separators, `─` for section dividers
- 2-space indent per card, newline between cards
- Empty market sections are simply omitted (no "0 results" noise)
## Dividend Calendar Key Dates
**A股**:
- 股权登记日 (Record date) = T day — buy on this day, still get dividend
- 除权除息日 (Ex-div date) = T+1 trading day
- **登记日前一天通知** → 用户登记日当天买入仍可拿分红
**港股**:
- Generally same system as A-shares
**美股**:
- 除权日 (Ex-div date) = cut-off. Buy on or after ex-div → no dividend
- 登记日 (Record date) = often same day as ex-div
- Notification should say "明天除权，今天是最后买入日"
## Current Price Fetching in dividend_alert.py
The `dividend_alert.py` script enriches each alert card with real-time prices via **LongPort SDK**. Unlike the old approach (AKShare for A, Sina for HK, LongPort for US), the current unified approach uses LongPort for ALL three markets in a single batch:
| Market | Symbol Mapping | LongPort Format |
|--------|---------------|-----------------|
| 🇨🇳 A股 | 603733 → 603733.SH, 000858 → 000858.SZ | `.SH`, `.SZ`, `.BJ` |
| 🇭🇰 港股 | 01088 → 01088.HK, 5 → 00005.HK | `.HK` (5-digit padded) |
| 🇺🇸 美股 | AAPL → AAPL.US | `.US` suffix |
**Batch all symbols in one LongPort call:**
```python
# One ctx.quote() call for all three markets
all_syms = a_syms + hk_syms + us_syms
for i in range(0, len(all_syms), 15):
for q in ctx.quote(all_syms[i:i+15]):
prices[q.symbol] = float(q.last_done)
```
**⚠️ LongPort connection can be intermittent** — the SDK prints a permission table on first init and may timeout on high-load days. If LongPort fails, prices show as N/A but dividend data still outputs. The script retries on each run (cron runs daily), so a single failure self-recovers.
**Dividend yield formula:** Yield = (dividend_per_10shares / 10) / current_price * 100. The Baidu API returns dividend in 元/10股 format, so divide by 10 before calculating yield.
## Script Reference
See `scripts/dividend_alert.py` for the production alerting script.
See `references/dividend-yield-arbitrage.md` for yield vs financing cost analysis.
See `references/fill-gap-timing.md` for historical 填权 timing data and dividend capture analysis.
## Pitfalls
1. **Proxy environment variables** — always `unset` proxy vars before calling AKShare or Nasdaq API
2. **Baidu dividend data is per-10-shares** for A/HK. Don't multiply by 10 again when displaying.
3. **Nasdaq API rate limits** — fine for 1 query/day in a cron job, but don't query multiple times rapidly
4. **Weekend/holiday handling** — `next_trading_day()` only skips Sat/Sun. For CN/HK holidays, you'd need a full trading calendar.
5. **No backward-looking price fetching for yield** — current market price is available from `stock_zh_a_hist()` (1-2s per stock), but fetching for all alert stocks is slow (~15s for 8-10 stocks). Tradeoff: speed vs completeness.
6. **Timezone confusion** — Server is usually EDT (UTC-4). Beijing is UTC+8. Cron schedule must account for this: 20:30 EDT = 08:30 BJT next day.
7. **`stock_zh_a_spot_em()` downloads the full A-share market (~5000 stocks)** — Takes ~3-5s for a single call. This is **fine** for one-shot batch price lookups (as done in `dividend_alert.py`) but avoid calling it repeatedly in loops. For single-stock lookups, prefer `stock_zh_a_hist(code, period='daily', start_date=today, end_date=today, adjust='qfq')` instead (1-2s each).
9. **AKShare Baidu dividend API is intermittent** — `ak.news_trade_notify_dividend_baidu()` may return 0 results on some runs despite having data on others. This is a server-side issue, not rate limiting. **Mitigation**: Added `time.sleep(0.5)` before the call to avoid cache issues. The cron job reruns daily, so a single failure self-recovers.
10. **Yield formula: divide-by-10 trap** — The Baidu API returns dividend in **元/10股** format. When calculating dividend yield in percent, use `(dividend_per_10shares / 10) / current_price * 100`. A common bug is forgetting to divide by 10 (the "per 10 shares" unit). Verified correct formula: `d/10/p*100` where `d` is the Baidu dividend value and `p` is the stock price.
11. **Variable name collisions in patch replacements** — When patching Python code that uses short variable names (`p`, `d`, `c`, `n`), find-and-replace patterns can accidentally match unrelated code. Always use 3+ lines of surrounding context for unique matching.
Dividend-focused stock analysis and pre-ex-dividend alerting. **Mindset is fundamentally different from trading:** focus on yield stability, growth trajectory, payout ratio, cash coverage, and tax implications — not technical entry points.