Initial commit: Hermes Agent skills collection

- Trading skills (OKX, dividend, lottery, quantitative)
- Creative skills (ASCII art, diagrams, video)
- Development skills (GitHub, debugging, TDD)
- Research skills (arXiv, blog monitoring)
- Productivity skills (email, documents, notes)
- MCP integration skills
- Custom user skills

trading/dividend-investing/references/fill-gap-timing.md

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+# 填权 (Gap Fill) Timing Reference
+
+## What is 填权?
+
+After ex-dividend, the stock price drops by approximately the dividend amount. "填权" means the stock price recovers back to (or above) the pre-ex-dividend level over time.
+
+**填权 ≠ immediate.** The market doesn't give away free money — the ex-div price drop is a mechanical adjustment. Whether and how fast the gap fills depends on ongoing supply/demand for the stock.
+
+## Historical Fill Speeds for A-share Dividend Stocks
+
+### 华特达因 (000915) — High-dividend healthcare stock
+
+| Year | Ex-div | Dividend | Pre-close | Ex-close | Fill Time | Notes |
+|------|--------|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|-------|
+| 2025 | Jun 11 | 2.00元 | 32.39 | 29.49 | **~10 days** (31.15, +5.6%) | Fast fill; stock was in uptrend |
+| 2024 | May 16 | 2.00元 | 35.30 | 33.48 | **Did not fill in 60 days** (30→27) | Bear market dragged it down |
+
+**Key insight:** 2025 filled fast because the stock was in a healthy trend. 2024 didn't fill because the overall market was falling. Stock quality matters but macro conditions dominate.
+
+### 同仁堂 (600085) — Blue-chip TCM
+
+(Add data here when available from analysis.)
+
+## Factors That Determine Fill Speed
+
+### 1. Stock Price Position (Most Important)
+
+```
+Stock at 52-week low:   High fill probability (already "cheap")
+Stock at 52-week high:  Low fill probability (due for pullback)
+
+Example: 华特达因 2025 → ex-div at 32 → near YTD high → fast fill anyway (good stock)
+         华特达因 2024 → ex-div at 35 → at YTD high → no fill (bad timing + bad market)
+```
+
+### 2. Market Direction
+
+- **Bull market / 结构性牛市**: Most quality stocks fill within 1-3 weeks
+- **Bear market / 熊市**: Can take months or never — the dividend is "eaten" by the falling price
+- **Sideways market**: Depends on stock-specific catalysts
+
+### 3. Dividend Size Relative to Price
+
+| Dividend/Price ratio | Impact |
+|---------------------|--------|
+| < 2% | Small gap, easy to fill (days) |
+| 2-5% | Moderate, 1-3 weeks typical |
+| > 5% | Large gap, may take months; better to wait for natural dip before buying |
+
+### 4. Company Fundamentals
+
+- **Growing dividends** (e.g., 华特达因 2021: 0.35 → 2025: 2.50/share) → faster fill (market rewards increasing payouts)
+- **Stable/declining dividends** → slower fill
+- **High payout ratio** (>80%) → risk of cut → may never fill
+- **Cash-rich** (>30% market cap in cash) → faster fill (dividend is safe)
+
+## Practical Rules for Dividend Capture
+
+```
+If you MUST try dividend capture (buy pre-ex-div, sell post):
+
+1. Only attempt on stocks near their 52-week LOW
+   → The ex-div gap is less damaging when already near support
+
+2. Only attempt when market is in uptrend
+   → Check: is the SH/SZ index above its 50-day MA?
+
+3. Plan to hold MINIMUM 2-4 weeks post-ex-div
+   → Selling the next day guarantees a loss (tax + gap)
+
+4. Calculate your break-even price:
+   BreakEven = ExDivPrice + (Tax_Rate × Dividend)
+   
+   Example: 28元 stock, 2元 dividend, 20% tax:
+   BreakEven = 26.00 + 0.40 = 26.40
+   → Stock must rally 1.5% from ex-div just to break even
+
+5. Consider buying AFTER ex-div instead:
+   - No dividend → no tax → no gap risk
+   - Lower entry price → higher yield on cost
+   - Same future dividends
+   → Often the better move for pure yield investors
+```
+
+## Data Source
+
+To calculate 填权 timing for any stock:
+
+```python
+import akshare as ak
+
+# Use unadjusted prices (adjust='') to see the real ex-div gap
+df = ak.stock_zh_a_hist(symbol='000915', period='daily', 
+                         start_date='20250601', end_date='20251001', adjust='')
+
+# Find ex-div day by looking for the big drop on the expected date
+# Then scan forward to see how many days to recover
+```