Initial commit: Hermes Agent skills collection

- Trading skills (OKX, dividend, lottery, quantitative) - Creative skills (ASCII art, diagrams, video) - Development skills (GitHub, debugging, TDD) - Research skills (arXiv, blog monitoring) - Productivity skills (email, documents, notes) - MCP integration skills - Custom user skills
2026-07-05 02:31:15 -04:00
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+# Stock Analysis Framework
+
+This reference provides detailed analysis frameworks for evaluating stocks across different markets.
+
+## Fundamental Analysis Checklist
+
+### 1. Financial Health Check
+
+- [ ] **Revenue Growth**: Consistent revenue growth over 3-5 years
+- [ ] **Profitability**: Gross margin, operating margin, net margin trends
+- [ ] **Cash Flow**: Positive operating cash flow, free cash flow generation
+- [ ] **Balance Sheet**: Debt-to-equity ratio, current ratio, interest coverage
+- [ ] **Return Ratios**: ROE, ROIC, whether they exceed cost of capital
+
+### 2. Business Model Analysis
+
+- [ ] **What does the company do?** Clear understanding of business and revenue sources
+- [ ] **Competitive Advantage**: Does the company have moat (brand, scale, network effect, patent)?
+- [ ] **Pricing Power**: Can they pass cost increases to customers?
+- [ ] **Customer Concentration**: Is business dependent on few large customers?
+
+### 3. Management Evaluation
+
+- [ ] **Capital Allocation**: Does management deploy capital wisely (reinvestment, dividends, buybacks)?
+- [ ] **Insider Ownership**: Do managers have significant skin in the game?
+- [ ] **Transparency**: Clear and honest communication with shareholders
+- [ ] **Track Record**: How have they performed through market cycles?
+
+## Valuation Methods
+
+### Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
+
+- Compare to:
+  - Historical P/E of the company
+  - Industry average P/E
+  - Market average P/E
+- Growth adjusted P/E (PEG ratio) < 1 often indicates undervaluation
+
+### Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
+
+- Particularly relevant for:
+  - Financial institutions (banks, insurance)
+  - Capital-intensive businesses
+  - Companies holding significant assets
+- P/B < 1 may indicate deep value (but always check for asset quality)
+
+### Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
+
+- Project future free cash flows for 5-10 years
+- Calculate terminal value
+- Discount to present value using appropriate discount rate (usually WACC)
+- Best for companies with stable predictable cash flows
+- Sensitivity analysis is important (change growth and discount rate assumptions)
+
+### Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
+
+- For mature companies with stable dividend history
+- Gordon Growth Model: Value = D1 / (r - g)
+- Focus on dividend growth rate and sustainability
+
+### Relative Valuation
+
+- Compare key multiples with direct competitors
+- Identify why the company should trade at premium/discount
+- Common multiples: EV/EBITDA, P/S, EV/Sales
+
+## Analysis by Market
+
+### US Market Analysis Considerations
+
+- US markets are generally more efficient
+- Focus on institutional holdings and analyst coverage
+- Consider currency impact for non-US investors
+- Tech sector dominates, so growth stock analysis skills are critical
+- Earnings reports and guidance heavily impact prices
+
+### Hong Kong Market Analysis Considerations
+
+- Strong link to Chinese economy
+- Influenced by both global and China factors
+- Higher weighting for financials and property
+- Pay attention to southbound/northbound capital flows
+- Liquidity varies significantly between stocks
+- Some companies have different share classes (A/H, different voting rights)
+
+### A-Share Market Analysis Considerations
+
+- More retail investor participation, higher volatility
+- Policy changes have significant impact
+- Focus on government industrial policies (five-year plans, etc.)
+- Sector rotation driven by policy and macro cycles
+- Pay attention to regulatory risks
+- Consider Shanghai/Shenzhen/HK Stock Connect flows
+
+## Risk Assessment Framework
+
+### Systematic Risk (Market Level)
+
+- Interest rate changes
+- Economic recession
+- Geopolitical risks
+- Market liquidity risk
+
+### Idiosyncratic Risk (Company Level)
+
+- Industry disruption
+- Competition
+- Management fraud/error
+- High debt default risk
+- Product/market failure
+
+## Margin of Safety
+
+- Always require a margin of safety between intrinsic value and market price
+- Typical margin: 20-30% for high-quality companies, 40-50% for lower-quality
+- Larger margin for more uncertain businesses
+- Never overpay for growth hype
+
+## Final Recommendation Categories
+
+- **Strong Buy**: Deep value, strong fundamentals, excellent risk-reward
+- **Buy**: Good company at reasonable price
+- **Hold**: Already fairly valued, no urgent need to buy or sell
+- **Watch**: Interesting company, waiting for better entry point
+- **Sell/Avoid**: Poor fundamentals, overvalued, significant risks