Initial commit: Hermes Agent skills collection

- Trading skills (OKX, dividend, lottery, quantitative) - Creative skills (ASCII art, diagrams, video) - Development skills (GitHub, debugging, TDD) - Research skills (arXiv, blog monitoring) - Productivity skills (email, documents, notes) - MCP integration skills - Custom user skills
2026-07-05 02:31:15 -04:00
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+# Stock Analysis Framework
+
+This reference provides detailed analysis frameworks for evaluating stocks across different markets.
+
+## Fundamental Analysis Checklist
+
+### 1. Financial Health Check
+
+- [ ] **Revenue Growth**: Consistent revenue growth over 3-5 years
+- [ ] **Profitability**: Gross margin, operating margin, net margin trends
+- [ ] **Cash Flow**: Positive operating cash flow, free cash flow generation
+- [ ] **Balance Sheet**: Debt-to-equity ratio, current ratio, interest coverage
+- [ ] **Return Ratios**: ROE, ROIC, whether they exceed cost of capital
+
+### 2. Business Model Analysis
+
+- [ ] **What does the company do?** Clear understanding of business and revenue sources
+- [ ] **Competitive Advantage**: Does the company have moat (brand, scale, network effect, patent)?
+- [ ] **Pricing Power**: Can they pass cost increases to customers?
+- [ ] **Customer Concentration**: Is business dependent on few large customers?
+
+### 3. Management Evaluation
+
+- [ ] **Capital Allocation**: Does management deploy capital wisely (reinvestment, dividends, buybacks)?
+- [ ] **Insider Ownership**: Do managers have significant skin in the game?
+- [ ] **Transparency**: Clear and honest communication with shareholders
+- [ ] **Track Record**: How have they performed through market cycles?
+
+## Valuation Methods
+
+### Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
+
+- Compare to:
+  - Historical P/E of the company
+  - Industry average P/E
+  - Market average P/E
+- Growth adjusted P/E (PEG ratio) < 1 often indicates undervaluation
+
+### Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
+
+- Particularly relevant for:
+  - Financial institutions (banks, insurance)
+  - Capital-intensive businesses
+  - Companies holding significant assets
+- P/B < 1 may indicate deep value (but always check for asset quality)
+
+### Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
+
+- Project future free cash flows for 5-10 years
+- Calculate terminal value
+- Discount to present value using appropriate discount rate (usually WACC)
+- Best for companies with stable predictable cash flows
+- Sensitivity analysis is important (change growth and discount rate assumptions)
+
+### Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
+
+- For mature companies with stable dividend history
+- Gordon Growth Model: Value = D1 / (r - g)
+- Focus on dividend growth rate and sustainability
+
+### Relative Valuation
+
+- Compare key multiples with direct competitors
+- Identify why the company should trade at premium/discount
+- Common multiples: EV/EBITDA, P/S, EV/Sales
+
+## Analysis by Market
+
+### US Market Analysis Considerations
+
+- US markets are generally more efficient
+- Focus on institutional holdings and analyst coverage
+- Consider currency impact for non-US investors
+- Tech sector dominates, so growth stock analysis skills are critical
+- Earnings reports and guidance heavily impact prices
+
+### Hong Kong Market Analysis Considerations
+
+- Strong link to Chinese economy
+- Influenced by both global and China factors
+- Higher weighting for financials and property
+- Pay attention to southbound/northbound capital flows
+- Liquidity varies significantly between stocks
+- Some companies have different share classes (A/H, different voting rights)
+
+### A-Share Market Analysis Considerations
+
+- More retail investor participation, higher volatility
+- Policy changes have significant impact
+- Focus on government industrial policies (five-year plans, etc.)
+- Sector rotation driven by policy and macro cycles
+- Pay attention to regulatory risks
+- Consider Shanghai/Shenzhen/HK Stock Connect flows
+
+## Risk Assessment Framework
+
+### Systematic Risk (Market Level)
+
+- Interest rate changes
+- Economic recession
+- Geopolitical risks
+- Market liquidity risk
+
+### Idiosyncratic Risk (Company Level)
+
+- Industry disruption
+- Competition
+- Management fraud/error
+- High debt default risk
+- Product/market failure
+
+## Margin of Safety
+
+- Always require a margin of safety between intrinsic value and market price
+- Typical margin: 20-30% for high-quality companies, 40-50% for lower-quality
+- Larger margin for more uncertain businesses
+- Never overpay for growth hype
+
+## Final Recommendation Categories
+
+- **Strong Buy**: Deep value, strong fundamentals, excellent risk-reward
+- **Buy**: Good company at reasonable price
+- **Hold**: Already fairly valued, no urgent need to buy or sell
+- **Watch**: Interesting company, waiting for better entry point
+- **Sell/Avoid**: Poor fundamentals, overvalued, significant risks
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+# Market Characteristics: US, Hong Kong, and A-Share
+
+This reference summarizes key characteristics of each market that influence how analysis should be conducted.
+
+## US Stock Market
+
+### Key Characteristics
+
+1. **Maturity and Efficiency**
+   - Most liquid and mature market in the world
+   - Generally more efficient pricing compared to emerging markets
+   - Institutional investors dominate trading
+   - High analyst coverage for large caps
+
+2. **Market Structure**
+   - Two main exchanges: NYSE and NASDAQ
+   - NASDAQ: Growth-oriented, heavy on technology
+   - NYSE: More diversified, includes many mature industrial/consumer companies
+   - Strict regulatory and disclosure requirements (SEC)
+
+3. **Trading Rules**
+   - No daily price limit
+   - T+0 settlement (instant trading)
+   - Currency: USD
+   - Trading hours: 9:30-16:00 EST (no mid-day break)
+
+4. **Investor Base**
+   - Predominantly institutional (pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds)
+   - Strong influence from passive/index investing
+   - Retail investors active in meme stocks and growth names
+
+5. **Analysis Focus**
+   - Earnings growth and future expectations are key drivers
+   - Federal Reserve interest rate policy has large impact
+   - Dollar strength affects multinational companies
+   - Tech sector ~28% of S&P 500, so dominates market moves
+
+## Hong Kong Stock Market
+
+### Key Characteristics
+
+1. **Hybrid Nature**
+   - Connects international and Chinese capital
+   - Most large Chinese companies list in HK
+   - Blend of international and local investors
+
+2. **Market Structure**
+   - Single exchange: Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX)
+   - Two main boards: Main Board and GEM (Growth Enterprise Market)
+   - Many companies have dual listings in HK and mainland (A+H shares)
+
+3. **Trading Rules**
+   - No daily price limit
+   - T+0 trading (same day buying/selling allowed)
+   - Currency: HKD (pegged to USD)
+   - Trading hours: 9:30-12:00, 13:00-16:00 (with mid-day break)
+
+4. **Sector Concentration**
+   - Financials (~20%): Banks, insurance
+   - Property (~10%): Major developers
+   - Internet/Technology (~30%): Tencent, Alibaba, etc.
+   - Consumption: Many retail and consumer brands
+
+5. **Key Price Drivers**
+   - US interest rates (since HKD pegged to USD)
+   - China economic data and policies
+   - Southbound capital flows (from mainland China)
+   - Global risk sentiment
+   - Renminbi exchange rate movements
+
+6. **Special Considerations**
+   - Liquidity premium/discount is very important
+   - Some small caps have very low trading volume
+   - Different share classes (different voting rights) common in tech
+
+## A-Share Market (Mainland China)
+
+### Key Characteristics
+
+1. **Market Structure**
+   - Two main exchanges: Shanghai (SSE) and Shenzhen (SZSE)
+   - Shanghai: Larger, more state-owned enterprises, blue chips
+   - Shenzhen: Smaller caps, growth companies, tech/innovation
+   - STAR Market (Shanghai): China's NASDAQ-style tech board
+   - ChiNext (Shenzhen): Growth board for innovative enterprises
+
+2. **Trading Rules**
+   - ±10% daily price limit (±20% for STAR/ChiNext)
+   - T+1 trading (can't sell same day you buy)
+   - Currency: CNY (renminbi)
+   - Trading hours: 9:30-11:30, 13:00-15:00 (mid-day break)
+
+3. **Investor Base**
+   - ~60% of trading volume from retail investors
+   - Higher volatility and speculation compared to developed markets
+   - Growing institutional presence (domestic mutual funds, foreign via Stock Connect)
+
+4. **Key Price Drivers**
+   - Government policy and industrial policies are extremely important
+   - Bank lending and credit conditions
+   - Domestic economic growth
+   - Retail investor sentiment and themes
+   - Regulatory changes can have massive impact
+
+5. **Sector Composition**
+   - Financials ~20%: Large banks, insurance
+   - Industrials ~20%: Infrastructure, manufacturing
+   - Consumer ~15%: Domestic consumption growth
+   - Technology ~15%: Semiconductors, software, hardware
+   - New energy ~10%: EV, solar, battery
+
+6. **Special Considerations**
+   - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) vs private enterprises: different dynamics
+   - Regulatory risk is a major factor to consider
+   - Anti-monopoly, data security, industry crackdowns can kill stocks
+   - Southbound/northbound flows influence short-term price moves
+
+## Cross-Market Comparison
+
+| Aspect | US | Hong Kong | A-Share |
+|--------|----|-----------|---------|
+| **Efficiency** | High | Medium | Lower |
+| **Volatility** | Moderate | Medium-High | High |
+| **Retail %** | ~20% | ~30% | ~60% |
+| **Policy Impact** | Moderate | High | Very High |
+| **Main Driver** | Earnings/Interest Rates | China+Global Liquidity | Policy/Themes |
+| **Analysis Style** | Growth/Value fundamental | Value + macro | Top-down (policy first) |
+
+## Key Investment Principles Across Markets
+
+1. **US**: Growth investors can do well, but don't overpay for hype
+2. **Hong Kong**: Focus on liquidity, don't hold illiquid small caps
+3. **A-Share**: Always consider policy direction first, don't fight against the government
+
+## Risk Reminder
+
+- All investments involve risk
+- Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
+- Diversification across markets and sectors reduces risk
+- Never invest money you can't afford to lose